Modeling Obstruction and Restoration of Urban Commutation Networks in the Wake of a Devastating Earthquake in Tokyo

In the aftermath of a devastating earthquake, public transportation is presumed paralyzed and thus unavailable; large numbers of people are expected to experience difficulty in commuting. In recent years, implementation of district continuity plans (DCPs) and business continuity plans (BCPs) has become a major concern for local governments and private firms, respectively. In this paper, we propose a pair of simulation models seeking to examine business commutation networks in terms of their possible obstruction and eventual restoration. The first of these model commuting intentions by analyzing individual daily commutes. The second offers a mobility model of commuters’ physical endurance for travel alternatives on foot or by bicycle. Next, we proceed to gauge the number of commuters likely to experience difficulty and adjudge their spatial distribution while taking into account such attributes as gender and employment. Lastly, we attempt to assess rates and patterns in the reduction of commutation constraints based on simulations that assume a restoration of rail infrastructure or its equivalent.